Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, as tracked by AEMET, project Madrid's highest temperature on March 27 around 18-20°C, fueling the tight race among these outcomes with trader-implied probabilities clustered at 19-27%. A building Azores High ridge is advecting mild Atlantic air, pushing above the 17°C March climatological average, but diurnal cloud cover and potential northerly shear could cap peaks at 17°C or shave to 18°C, while clearer skies and stronger southerlies favor 19-20°C. Recent 12Z model runs show slight warming trends, narrowing uncertainty, though pre-dawn soundings will refine resolution odds before evening verification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 27?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?
18°C 27%
17°C 22%
20°C 22%
19°C 19%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
13%
14°C
5%
15°C
15%
16°C
16%
17°C
22%
18°C
27%
19°C
19%
20°C
22%
21°C
11%
22°C or higher
3%
18°C 27%
17°C 22%
20°C 22%
19°C 19%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
13%
14°C
5%
15°C
15%
16°C
16%
17°C
22%
18°C
27%
19°C
19%
20°C
22%
21°C
11%
22°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, as tracked by AEMET, project Madrid's highest temperature on March 27 around 18-20°C, fueling the tight race among these outcomes with trader-implied probabilities clustered at 19-27%. A building Azores High ridge is advecting mild Atlantic air, pushing above the 17°C March climatological average, but diurnal cloud cover and potential northerly shear could cap peaks at 17°C or shave to 18°C, while clearer skies and stronger southerlies favor 19-20°C. Recent 12Z model runs show slight warming trends, narrowing uncertainty, though pre-dawn soundings will refine resolution odds before evening verification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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