**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high of 9°C (32%) on March 26, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 8-10°C amid mild ridging over Central Europe.** Recent 12Z model runs indicate a subtle warming shift from southerly flows enhancing diurnal heating, elevating odds for 10-11°C (21.5% and 18.5%), while 8°C (17%) reflects risks of cloudier conditions from an Atlantic shortwave. Cooler outcomes below 7°C carry low probability (<8% combined) given above-climatological baselines (historical March 26 average ~9°C), but high uncertainty stems from 3-4°C ensemble spreads and potential trough evolution. Key resolution watch: IMGW observations and 00Z forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
9°C 33%
10°C 22%
11°C 17%
8°C 16%
$68,526 Объем
$68,526 Объем
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
4%
8°C
16%
9°C
33%
10°C
22%
11°C
17%
12°C
6%
13°C or higher
4%
9°C 33%
10°C 22%
11°C 17%
8°C 16%
$68,526 Объем
$68,526 Объем
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
4%
8°C
16%
9°C
33%
10°C
22%
11°C
17%
12°C
6%
13°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high of 9°C (32%) on March 26, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 8-10°C amid mild ridging over Central Europe.** Recent 12Z model runs indicate a subtle warming shift from southerly flows enhancing diurnal heating, elevating odds for 10-11°C (21.5% and 18.5%), while 8°C (17%) reflects risks of cloudier conditions from an Atlantic shortwave. Cooler outcomes below 7°C carry low probability (<8% combined) given above-climatological baselines (historical March 26 average ~9°C), but high uncertainty stems from 3-4°C ensemble spreads and potential trough evolution. Key resolution watch: IMGW observations and 00Z forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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