Trader sentiment for Houston's highest temperature on March 27 heavily favors 84-85°F at 22.5% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast showing highs peaking near 85°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converge on mid-80s outcomes, with 82-83°F and 86-87°F close behind due to minor divergences in boundary layer mixing and Gulf moisture influx that could shave or add a degree. Historical March data at Houston's IAH airport averages 76°F highs, but this anomalously warm pattern—fueled by persistent ridging—elevates odds above climatology, though sea breeze timing introduces uncertainty differentiating the top bins. Key watch: afternoon sounding updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Houston on March 27?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 27?
84-85°F 23%
82-83°F 18%
86-87°F 18%
88-89°F 12%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
8%
94°F or higher
3%
84-85°F 23%
82-83°F 18%
86-87°F 18%
88-89°F 12%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
8%
94°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Houston's highest temperature on March 27 heavily favors 84-85°F at 22.5% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast showing highs peaking near 85°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converge on mid-80s outcomes, with 82-83°F and 86-87°F close behind due to minor divergences in boundary layer mixing and Gulf moisture influx that could shave or add a degree. Historical March data at Houston's IAH airport averages 76°F highs, but this anomalously warm pattern—fueled by persistent ridging—elevates odds above climatology, though sea breeze timing introduces uncertainty differentiating the top bins. Key watch: afternoon sounding updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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