Trader sentiment for Houston's highest temperature on March 26 hinges on ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF, which cluster forecasts around 82-85°F under a potent subtropical ridge building over Texas, delivering sunny skies and southerly winds in the 10-15 mph range. The razor-thin edge to 84-85°F (30%) over 82-83°F (28.5%) stems from subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and late-afternoon insolation, with GFS ensembles leaning slightly warmer due to enhanced subsidence aloft, while Euro models show minor cloud intrusions capping peaks lower. Recent 12z runs nudged odds upward from prior 80s centroids, but uncertainty persists from potential Gulf moisture surges; monitor 00z updates for resolution shifts, as historical late-March highs average 78°F but often spike 5-7°F in ridge patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Houston on March 26?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 26?
84-85°F 30%
82-83°F 29%
80-81°F 19%
86-87°F 13%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
29%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
3%
92°F or higher
2%
84-85°F 30%
82-83°F 29%
80-81°F 19%
86-87°F 13%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
29%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
3%
92°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Houston's highest temperature on March 26 hinges on ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF, which cluster forecasts around 82-85°F under a potent subtropical ridge building over Texas, delivering sunny skies and southerly winds in the 10-15 mph range. The razor-thin edge to 84-85°F (30%) over 82-83°F (28.5%) stems from subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and late-afternoon insolation, with GFS ensembles leaning slightly warmer due to enhanced subsidence aloft, while Euro models show minor cloud intrusions capping peaks lower. Recent 12z runs nudged odds upward from prior 80s centroids, but uncertainty persists from potential Gulf moisture surges; monitor 00z updates for resolution shifts, as historical late-March highs average 78°F but often spike 5-7°F in ridge patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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