Trader consensus favors 11°C as Paris's highest temperature on March 27, with 29% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering tightly around 10-12°C amid a cool, cloudy northerly flow. Differentiating the leading outcomes—11°C over 12°C (25%) and 10°C (19%)—are subtle model divergences: ECMWF's control run projects 11°C under overcast skies limiting insolation, while GFS variants hint at 12°C if breaks emerge, though a strengthening low-pressure trough biases cooler. Historical late-March highs average 12°C, but this year's post-La Niña patterns and jet stream dip introduce downside risk, with peak temps typically mid-afternoon; monitor 12Z updates for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 27?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 27?
11°C 30%
12°C 26%
10°C 20%
13°C 13%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
3%
7°C
3%
8°C
11%
9°C
13%
10°C
20%
11°C
30%
12°C
26%
13°C
13%
14°C
6%
15°C or higher
2%
11°C 30%
12°C 26%
10°C 20%
13°C 13%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
3%
7°C
3%
8°C
11%
9°C
13%
10°C
20%
11°C
30%
12°C
26%
13°C
13%
14°C
6%
15°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 11°C as Paris's highest temperature on March 27, with 29% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering tightly around 10-12°C amid a cool, cloudy northerly flow. Differentiating the leading outcomes—11°C over 12°C (25%) and 10°C (19%)—are subtle model divergences: ECMWF's control run projects 11°C under overcast skies limiting insolation, while GFS variants hint at 12°C if breaks emerge, though a strengthening low-pressure trough biases cooler. Historical late-March highs average 12°C, but this year's post-La Niña patterns and jet stream dip introduce downside risk, with peak temps typically mid-afternoon; monitor 12Z updates for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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