Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19–21°C maxima for Wellington on March 24, driven by MetService's latest forecast pinning the high at 20°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild northerlies, with partial cloudiness tempering peaks. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs show a 1–2°C spread, differentiating outcomes: 19°C favored if southerly sea breezes strengthen post-midday, cooling coastal air; 20°C as consensus baseline matching March climatology (historical average 20.1°C); and 21°C gaining traction from clearer skies in morning model biases. Diurnal variability and low-level moisture remain key uncertainties, with 12z updates potentially tipping odds before resolution via official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Веллингтоне 24 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Веллингтоне 24 марта?
19°C 32%
20°C 32%
21°C 27%
18°C 21%
13°C или ниже
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
15%
18°C
21%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
27%
22°C
18%
23°C или выше
19%
19°C 32%
20°C 32%
21°C 27%
18°C 21%
13°C или ниже
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
15%
18°C
21%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
27%
22°C
18%
23°C или выше
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19–21°C maxima for Wellington on March 24, driven by MetService's latest forecast pinning the high at 20°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild northerlies, with partial cloudiness tempering peaks. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs show a 1–2°C spread, differentiating outcomes: 19°C favored if southerly sea breezes strengthen post-midday, cooling coastal air; 20°C as consensus baseline matching March climatology (historical average 20.1°C); and 21°C gaining traction from clearer skies in morning model biases. Diurnal variability and low-level moisture remain key uncertainties, with 12z updates potentially tipping odds before resolution via official airport observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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