Ensemble forecasts from leading numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 16–18°C for Milan's highest temperature on March 28, reflecting a mild southerly airflow and high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Trader consensus favors 17°C at 27% due to the ensemble mean hovering near that mark, with slight divergences: warmer 18–20°C outcomes (24–17%) gaining from optimistic GFS runs showing clearer skies and subsidence warming, while cooler 15–16°C bids (25–15.5%) hedge against potential cloud intrusions from residual Atlantic lows. Historical late-March highs in Milan average 14–15°C but exhibit 2–3°C model spread this close to event time, underscoring uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects. Watch 12Z model updates for shifts.