Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a 13°C high in Milan on March 26 at 33.5% implied probability, with close competition from 12°C (24.5%) and 14°C (19.5%) reflecting model spread amid late-March variability. Spring climatology shows Milan averages around 13°C for this date, but current upper-level patterns—a weakening Atlantic ridge and potential southerly flow—could boost maxima via warmer air advection, per ARPA Lombardia outlooks. Differentiating factors include cloud cover forecasts: clearer skies in some runs favor 14°C via enhanced solar insolation, while thicker overcast tilts toward 12°C by limiting diurnal heating. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts, as urban heat island effects amplify small variances.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Milan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 26?
13°C 34%
12°C 26%
14°C 20%
11°C 14.0%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
14%
12°C
26%
13°C
34%
14°C
20%
15°C
4%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
13°C 34%
12°C 26%
14°C 20%
11°C 14.0%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
14%
12°C
26%
13°C
34%
14°C
20%
15°C
4%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a 13°C high in Milan on March 26 at 33.5% implied probability, with close competition from 12°C (24.5%) and 14°C (19.5%) reflecting model spread amid late-March variability. Spring climatology shows Milan averages around 13°C for this date, but current upper-level patterns—a weakening Atlantic ridge and potential southerly flow—could boost maxima via warmer air advection, per ARPA Lombardia outlooks. Differentiating factors include cloud cover forecasts: clearer skies in some runs favor 14°C via enhanced solar insolation, while thicker overcast tilts toward 12°C by limiting diurnal heating. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts, as urban heat island effects amplify small variances.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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