Trader consensus favors a high of 84-85°F in Austin on March 27 at 20% implied probability, edging out 82-83°F at 18%, driven by NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble means clustering in the low-to-mid 80s amid a persistent upper-level ridge amplifying Texas warmth. These lead over 94°F+ odds (16.5%) due to model spread from dry, subsident outlier runs versus more realistic mid-level moisture tempering peaks. Late-March climatology averages 77°F highs, but +8-10°F anomalies this season heighten upside risk; differentiating factors include southerly wind shear and afternoon cloud cover, with final NWS guidance pivotal as convective inhibition wanes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Austin on March 27?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?
84-85°F 21%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 18%
94°F or higher 16%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
14%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
12%
92-93°F
11%
94°F or higher
16%
84-85°F 21%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 18%
94°F or higher 16%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
14%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
12%
92-93°F
11%
94°F or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high of 84-85°F in Austin on March 27 at 20% implied probability, edging out 82-83°F at 18%, driven by NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble means clustering in the low-to-mid 80s amid a persistent upper-level ridge amplifying Texas warmth. These lead over 94°F+ odds (16.5%) due to model spread from dry, subsident outlier runs versus more realistic mid-level moisture tempering peaks. Late-March climatology averages 77°F highs, but +8-10°F anomalies this season heighten upside risk; differentiating factors include southerly wind shear and afternoon cloud cover, with final NWS guidance pivotal as convective inhibition wanes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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