Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 28–30°C for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from INMET and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks of 28–29°C amid lingering summer warmth tempered by southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent developments, including yesterday's model updates showing minimal spread (standard deviation ~1°C), differentiate outcomes: 30°C odds reflect warmer GFS bias from urban heat island effects, while 28°C edges ahead on ECMWF's cooler outlook tied to Atlantic moisture influx. Historical March highs average 27.5°C, but low rain probabilities (20%) favor the upper 20s, with traders eyeing today's INMET bulletin for final resolution cues.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
29°C 27%
30°C 26%
28°C 19%
31°C 17%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
9%
26°C
10%
27°C
7%
28°C
26%
29°C
27%
30°C
26%
31°C
17%
32°C or higher
17%
29°C 27%
30°C 26%
28°C 19%
31°C 17%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
9%
26°C
10%
27°C
7%
28°C
26%
29°C
27%
30°C
26%
31°C
17%
32°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 28–30°C for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from INMET and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks of 28–29°C amid lingering summer warmth tempered by southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent developments, including yesterday's model updates showing minimal spread (standard deviation ~1°C), differentiate outcomes: 30°C odds reflect warmer GFS bias from urban heat island effects, while 28°C edges ahead on ECMWF's cooler outlook tied to Atlantic moisture influx. Historical March highs average 27.5°C, but low rain probabilities (20%) favor the upper 20s, with traders eyeing today's INMET bulletin for final resolution cues.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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