Trader consensus favors 31°C as Sao Paulo's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest INMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering around 30-32°C amid lingering summer warmth from a weakening El Niño. Recent model updates show a slight uptick in implied probabilities for 31°C after GFS runs indicated reduced afternoon cloud cover, allowing greater solar heating over the urban heat island. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap highs at 30°C by enhancing coastal cooling, while delays might push to 32°C via prolonged insolation. Historical March maxima average 29°C, but this year's anomalous heat has compressed odds across the top outcomes, with traders eyeing final pre-dawn soundings for resolution clues.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 22?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 22?
31°C 28%
30°C 21%
32°C 18%
29°C 16%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
16%
30°C
21%
31°C
28%
32°C
18%
33°C
10%
34°C or higher
4%
31°C 28%
30°C 21%
32°C 18%
29°C 16%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
16%
30°C
21%
31°C
28%
32°C
18%
33°C
10%
34°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 31°C as Sao Paulo's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest INMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering around 30-32°C amid lingering summer warmth from a weakening El Niño. Recent model updates show a slight uptick in implied probabilities for 31°C after GFS runs indicated reduced afternoon cloud cover, allowing greater solar heating over the urban heat island. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap highs at 30°C by enhancing coastal cooling, while delays might push to 32°C via prolonged insolation. Historical March maxima average 29°C, but this year's anomalous heat has compressed odds across the top outcomes, with traders eyeing final pre-dawn soundings for resolution clues.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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