Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Chicago high of 42-43°F (26.5% implied probability) over 44-45°F (23%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast for O'Hare International Airport—Chicago's official measurement site—calling for a peak near 43°F under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs show convergence in the low-to-mid 40s, tempered by lingering cold air advection from a departing shortwave trough and 20-30% precipitation odds limiting solar heating. Historical March 23 averages hover around 45°F, but current 850mb temperatures 4-6°C below normal favor the lower bin, with traders eyeing afternoon hourly updates for final differentiation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Чикаго 23 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Чикаго 23 марта?
42-43°F 23%
44-45°F 20%
46-47°F 10.7%
48-49°F 10.1%
35°F или ниже
1%
36-37°F
2%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
7%
42-43°F
23%
44-45°F
20%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
10%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
2%
54°F или выше
1%
42-43°F 23%
44-45°F 20%
46-47°F 10.7%
48-49°F 10.1%
35°F или ниже
1%
36-37°F
2%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
7%
42-43°F
23%
44-45°F
20%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
10%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
2%
54°F или выше
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Chicago high of 42-43°F (26.5% implied probability) over 44-45°F (23%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast for O'Hare International Airport—Chicago's official measurement site—calling for a peak near 43°F under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs show convergence in the low-to-mid 40s, tempered by lingering cold air advection from a departing shortwave trough and 20-30% precipitation odds limiting solar heating. Historical March 23 averages hover around 45°F, but current 850mb temperatures 4-6°C below normal favor the lower bin, with traders eyeing afternoon hourly updates for final differentiation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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