Traders heavily favor a Chicago high of 63°F or below (58.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast projecting peaks near 60°F under partly cloudy skies and a weak cool front suppressing warmth. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show consensus highs of 58-64°F, moderated by Lake Michigan's chill and a meandering jet stream pattern typical for late March. Recent Midwest observations indicate 4-6°F below-average diurnal maxima, reducing upside potential; a 12z update today could refine this if southerly flow intensifies. Historical March 22 norms average 48°F (records: 74°F high, 3°F low), positioning 64-65°F (24.9%) as the next viable outcome amid spring volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 59%
64-65°F 24.9%
66-67°F 4.3%
68-69°F 2.5%
$54,861 Объем
$54,861 Объем
63°F or below
59%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
63°F or below 59%
64-65°F 24.9%
66-67°F 4.3%
68-69°F 2.5%
$54,861 Объем
$54,861 Объем
63°F or below
59%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily favor a Chicago high of 63°F or below (58.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast projecting peaks near 60°F under partly cloudy skies and a weak cool front suppressing warmth. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show consensus highs of 58-64°F, moderated by Lake Michigan's chill and a meandering jet stream pattern typical for late March. Recent Midwest observations indicate 4-6°F below-average diurnal maxima, reducing upside potential; a 12z update today could refine this if southerly flow intensifies. Historical March 22 norms average 48°F (records: 74°F high, 3°F low), positioning 64-65°F (24.9%) as the next viable outcome amid spring volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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