Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF drive trader consensus toward highs of 90-91°F (34.5% implied probability) in Austin on March 26, with a tight race against 88-89°F (27.5%) and 86-87°F (23.5%). A persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas promotes intense solar heating under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds advection warm Gulf moisture, pushing above normal March averages (~77°F). Model spreads reflect uncertainty in peak diurnal heating and potential afternoon cumulus clouds, which could cap temperatures 2-3°F lower in cooler runs; recent 12z updates slightly favor the 90°F bin as the mean forecast clusters there, differentiating leaders amid low volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Austin on March 26?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 26?
90-91°F 36%
88-89°F 28%
92-93°F 19%
86-87°F 18%
81°F or below
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
28%
90-91°F
36%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
11%
96-97°F
3%
98-99°F
1%
100°F or higher
2%
90-91°F 36%
88-89°F 28%
92-93°F 19%
86-87°F 18%
81°F or below
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
28%
90-91°F
36%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
11%
96-97°F
3%
98-99°F
1%
100°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF drive trader consensus toward highs of 90-91°F (34.5% implied probability) in Austin on March 26, with a tight race against 88-89°F (27.5%) and 86-87°F (23.5%). A persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas promotes intense solar heating under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds advection warm Gulf moisture, pushing above normal March averages (~77°F). Model spreads reflect uncertainty in peak diurnal heating and potential afternoon cumulus clouds, which could cap temperatures 2-3°F lower in cooler runs; recent 12z updates slightly favor the 90°F bin as the mean forecast clusters there, differentiating leaders amid low volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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