Trader consensus favors a 30°C high in Sao Paulo on March 24 at 28% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 29°C (21.5%) and 31°C (20%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging around 29-31°C amid a high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. Recent model runs show ECMWF leaning slightly cooler due to potential afternoon sea-breeze incursions moderating urban heat island effects, while GFS projects hotter under clearer skies and low humidity. March climatology averages 28°C highs at GRU airport, but El Niño residuals boost variability; key differentiator is thunderstorm probability, with 20-30% chance per INMET reducing peaks below 30°C. Monitor 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 24?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 24?
30°C 28%
29°C 20%
31°C 18%
32°C 13%
25°C или ниже
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
10%
29°C
20%
30°C
28%
31°C
18%
32°C
13%
33°C
13%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
3%
30°C 28%
29°C 20%
31°C 18%
32°C 13%
25°C или ниже
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
10%
29°C
20%
30°C
28%
31°C
18%
32°C
13%
33°C
13%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 30°C high in Sao Paulo on March 24 at 28% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 29°C (21.5%) and 31°C (20%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging around 29-31°C amid a high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. Recent model runs show ECMWF leaning slightly cooler due to potential afternoon sea-breeze incursions moderating urban heat island effects, while GFS projects hotter under clearer skies and low humidity. March climatology averages 28°C highs at GRU airport, but El Niño residuals boost variability; key differentiator is thunderstorm probability, with 20-30% chance per INMET reducing peaks below 30°C. Monitor 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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