Trader consensus favors Chicago's March 26 high temperature in the 64-69°F range, driven by NOAA ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF averaging 66-68°F amid persistent southerly winds advecting mild air from the Gulf. Leading bins at 68-69°F (19.5%) and 66-67°F (16%) reflect peak afternoon heating under partly cloudy skies, per latest 12Z runs, while 64-65°F edges in on potential marine layer persistence from Lake Michigan. Differentiating factors include model spread of ±3°F—ECMWF warmer aloft versus GFS cooler boundary layer—and urban heat island amplification, historically boosting observed highs 1-2°F above rural sensors. Recent 00Z updates trimmed cooler outlier odds below 60°F to under 12%, signaling reduced frontal interference risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
68-69°F 19%
66-67°F 16%
64-65°F 13%
72-73°F 13%
$48,785 Объем
$48,785 Объем
59°F or below
5%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
13%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
3%
68-69°F 19%
66-67°F 16%
64-65°F 13%
72-73°F 13%
$48,785 Объем
$48,785 Объем
59°F or below
5%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
13%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Chicago's March 26 high temperature in the 64-69°F range, driven by NOAA ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF averaging 66-68°F amid persistent southerly winds advecting mild air from the Gulf. Leading bins at 68-69°F (19.5%) and 66-67°F (16%) reflect peak afternoon heating under partly cloudy skies, per latest 12Z runs, while 64-65°F edges in on potential marine layer persistence from Lake Michigan. Differentiating factors include model spread of ±3°F—ECMWF warmer aloft versus GFS cooler boundary layer—and urban heat island amplification, historically boosting observed highs 1-2°F above rural sensors. Recent 00Z updates trimmed cooler outlier odds below 60°F to under 12%, signaling reduced frontal interference risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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