Recent ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 near 15°C under persistent cloud cover and light drizzle from Black Sea moisture, anchoring trader sentiment with 33.5% implied probability on that outcome and distributing odds across 13–16°C (23.5–13.5%). Early April climatology averages highs of 15°C, but short-range forecast uncertainty stems from variable frontal timing: northerly winds and precipitation favor cooler 12–13°C results by suppressing daytime heating, while partial clearing or southerly flow could elevate to 16–18°C via increased solar insolation. Outcomes beyond 18°C or below 10°C remain improbable (<3%) given mild seasonal air masses. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new model runs expected daily through resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
15°C 46%
13°C 29%
14°C 21%
12°C 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
10°C or below
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
11%
13°C
24%
14°C
21%
15°C
32%
16°C
14%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
1%
15°C 46%
13°C 29%
14°C 21%
12°C 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 апр. 2026 г.
10°C or below
$271 Объем
2%
11°C
$196 Объем
2%
12°C
$248 Объем
11%
13°C
$259 Объем
24%
14°C
$188 Объем
21%
15°C
$415 Объем
32%
16°C
$235 Объем
14%
17°C
$224 Объем
2%
18°C
$203 Объем
2%
19°C
$269 Объем
3%
20°C or higher
$832 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 near 15°C under persistent cloud cover and light drizzle from Black Sea moisture, anchoring trader sentiment with 33.5% implied probability on that outcome and distributing odds across 13–16°C (23.5–13.5%). Early April climatology averages highs of 15°C, but short-range forecast uncertainty stems from variable frontal timing: northerly winds and precipitation favor cooler 12–13°C results by suppressing daytime heating, while partial clearing or southerly flow could elevate to 16–18°C via increased solar insolation. Outcomes beyond 18°C or below 10°C remain improbable (<3%) given mild seasonal air masses. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new model runs expected daily through resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Объем
$3,340Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 near 15°C under persistent cloud cover and light drizzle from Black Sea moisture, anchoring trader sentiment with 33.5% implied probability on that outcome and distributing odds across 13–16°C (23.5–13.5%). Early April climatology averages highs of 15°C, but short-range forecast uncertainty stems from variable frontal timing: northerly winds and precipitation favor cooler 12–13°C results by suppressing daytime heating, while partial clearing or southerly flow could elevate to 16–18°C via increased solar insolation. Outcomes beyond 18°C or below 10°C remain improbable (<3%) given mild seasonal air masses. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new model runs expected daily through resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$3,340Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 near 15°C under persistent cloud cover and light drizzle from Black Sea moisture, anchoring trader sentiment with 33.5% implied probability on that outcome and distributing odds across 13–16°C (23.5–13.5%). Early April climatology averages highs of 15°C, but short-range forecast uncertainty stems from variable frontal timing: northerly winds and precipitation favor cooler 12–13°C results by suppressing daytime heating, while partial clearing or southerly flow could elevate to 16–18°C via increased solar insolation. Outcomes beyond 18°C or below 10°C remain improbable (<3%) given mild seasonal air masses. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new model runs expected daily through resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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