Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to 14°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today, closely mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW projections, which center daytime maxima around 14°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning follows yesterday's mild high near 12°C, with current atmospheric conditions—moderate cloud cover limiting solar insolation—favoring restrained warming during peak afternoon hours. Historical early-April averages in Warsaw hover at 12–13°C, aligning with model baselines. Realistic challenges include prolonged sunshine pushing toward 15°C or unexpected showers capping at 13°C; IMGW hourly updates and observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will provide definitive intraday clarity as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
14°C 98.9%
15°C 1.6%
16°C 1.1%
17°C or higher <1%
$76,885 Объем
$76,885 Объем
3 апр. 2026 г.
13°C
<1%
14°C
99%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
14°C 98.9%
15°C 1.6%
16°C 1.1%
17°C or higher <1%
$76,885 Объем
$76,885 Объем
3 апр. 2026 г.
13°C
$36,808 Объем
<1%
14°C
$6,558 Объем
99%
15°C
$5,704 Объем
2%
16°C
$5,267 Объем
1%
17°C or higher
$4,961 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to 14°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today, closely mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW projections, which center daytime maxima around 14°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning follows yesterday's mild high near 12°C, with current atmospheric conditions—moderate cloud cover limiting solar insolation—favoring restrained warming during peak afternoon hours. Historical early-April averages in Warsaw hover at 12–13°C, aligning with model baselines. Realistic challenges include prolonged sunshine pushing toward 15°C or unexpected showers capping at 13°C; IMGW hourly updates and observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will provide definitive intraday clarity as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$76,885Дата окончания
3 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to 14°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today, closely mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW projections, which center daytime maxima around 14°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning follows yesterday's mild high near 12°C, with current atmospheric conditions—moderate cloud cover limiting solar insolation—favoring restrained warming during peak afternoon hours. Historical early-April averages in Warsaw hover at 12–13°C, aligning with model baselines. Realistic challenges include prolonged sunshine pushing toward 15°C or unexpected showers capping at 13°C; IMGW hourly updates and observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will provide definitive intraday clarity as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$76,885Дата окончания
3 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to 14°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today, closely mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW projections, which center daytime maxima around 14°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning follows yesterday's mild high near 12°C, with current atmospheric conditions—moderate cloud cover limiting solar insolation—favoring restrained warming during peak afternoon hours. Historical early-April averages in Warsaw hover at 12–13°C, aligning with model baselines. Realistic challenges include prolonged sunshine pushing toward 15°C or unexpected showers capping at 13°C; IMGW hourly updates and observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will provide definitive intraday clarity as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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