Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich today at 95.7% implied probability, backed by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and short-term forecast guidance showing midday readings of 11°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, projecting a late-afternoon peak near 13-14°C at Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily maxima average 11-13°C amid typical spring transitional weather patterns featuring moderate insolation and low-level moisture. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS exhibit tight spreads supporting this positioning, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud buildup capping temps at 13°C or prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 15°C or higher, though current trajectories suggest low likelihood; real-time DWD hourly updates through evening will confirm the outcome.