Latest forecasts from Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and ECMWF model ensemble project Madrid's highest temperature on April 8 at 18–22°C, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or higher as trader consensus aligns with a high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence, clear skies, and seasonal warmth following a notable temperature rise across central Spain this week. This positioning reflects current upper-atmosphere patterns suppressing cold air intrusions, consistent with AEMET's outlook for above-average spring conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Atlantic front delivering persistent cloud cover or light rain—per BBC Met Office guidance—potentially capping peaks near 13°C, with new daily model updates from ECMWF at 00Z/12Z offering key resolution signals before the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on April 8?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 8?
14°C or higher 97.6%
13°C 1.1%
10°C <1%
9°C <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 апр. 2026 г.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
98%
14°C or higher 97.6%
13°C 1.1%
10°C <1%
9°C <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 апр. 2026 г.
4°C or below
$708 Объем
<1%
5°C
$712 Объем
<1%
6°C
$724 Объем
<1%
7°C
$728 Объем
<1%
8°C
$705 Объем
<1%
9°C
$693 Объем
1%
10°C
$800 Объем
1%
11°C
$727 Объем
<1%
12°C
$698 Объем
<1%
13°C
$339 Объем
1%
14°C or higher
$980 Объем
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and ECMWF model ensemble project Madrid's highest temperature on April 8 at 18–22°C, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or higher as trader consensus aligns with a high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence, clear skies, and seasonal warmth following a notable temperature rise across central Spain this week. This positioning reflects current upper-atmosphere patterns suppressing cold air intrusions, consistent with AEMET's outlook for above-average spring conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Atlantic front delivering persistent cloud cover or light rain—per BBC Met Office guidance—potentially capping peaks near 13°C, with new daily model updates from ECMWF at 00Z/12Z offering key resolution signals before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Объем
$7,814Дата окончания
8 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and ECMWF model ensemble project Madrid's highest temperature on April 8 at 18–22°C, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or higher as trader consensus aligns with a high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence, clear skies, and seasonal warmth following a notable temperature rise across central Spain this week. This positioning reflects current upper-atmosphere patterns suppressing cold air intrusions, consistent with AEMET's outlook for above-average spring conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Atlantic front delivering persistent cloud cover or light rain—per BBC Met Office guidance—potentially capping peaks near 13°C, with new daily model updates from ECMWF at 00Z/12Z offering key resolution signals before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$7,814Дата окончания
8 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and ECMWF model ensemble project Madrid's highest temperature on April 8 at 18–22°C, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or higher as trader consensus aligns with a high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence, clear skies, and seasonal warmth following a notable temperature rise across central Spain this week. This positioning reflects current upper-atmosphere patterns suppressing cold air intrusions, consistent with AEMET's outlook for above-average spring conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Atlantic front delivering persistent cloud cover or light rain—per BBC Met Office guidance—potentially capping peaks near 13°C, with new daily model updates from ECMWF at 00Z/12Z offering key resolution signals before the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы