Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 17–19°C for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts amid transitioning weather patterns. Recent tenki.jp updates (drawing from JMA data) project a 21°C high under sunny intervals with occasional clouds and 20% precipitation chance, following showers that capped April 15–16 highs at 23–24°C despite mild averages. However, model ensembles reveal 2–3°C spreads due to potential lingering frontal clouds, northerly winds, and variable solar insolation, differentiating outcomes—clearer skies favor 19–20°C, while overcast risks pull toward 17–18°C. Updated JMA guidance and ECMWF/GFS runs expected April 16 morning could sharpen probabilities as the resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 17?
18°C 32%
19°C 31%
17°C 23%
20°C 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 апр. 2026 г.
12°C or below
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
7%
17°C
23%
18°C
32%
19°C
31%
20°C
11%
21°C
6%
22°C or higher
4%
18°C 32%
19°C 31%
17°C 23%
20°C 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 апр. 2026 г.
12°C or below
$707 Объем
1%
13°C
$402 Объем
2%
14°C
$244 Объем
1%
15°C
$278 Объем
3%
16°C
$231 Объем
7%
17°C
$41 Объем
23%
18°C
$56 Объем
32%
19°C
$80 Объем
31%
20°C
$38 Объем
11%
21°C
$90 Объем
6%
22°C or higher
$385 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 17–19°C for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts amid transitioning weather patterns. Recent tenki.jp updates (drawing from JMA data) project a 21°C high under sunny intervals with occasional clouds and 20% precipitation chance, following showers that capped April 15–16 highs at 23–24°C despite mild averages. However, model ensembles reveal 2–3°C spreads due to potential lingering frontal clouds, northerly winds, and variable solar insolation, differentiating outcomes—clearer skies favor 19–20°C, while overcast risks pull toward 17–18°C. Updated JMA guidance and ECMWF/GFS runs expected April 16 morning could sharpen probabilities as the resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Объем
$2,196Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 17–19°C for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts amid transitioning weather patterns. Recent tenki.jp updates (drawing from JMA data) project a 21°C high under sunny intervals with occasional clouds and 20% precipitation chance, following showers that capped April 15–16 highs at 23–24°C despite mild averages. However, model ensembles reveal 2–3°C spreads due to potential lingering frontal clouds, northerly winds, and variable solar insolation, differentiating outcomes—clearer skies favor 19–20°C, while overcast risks pull toward 17–18°C. Updated JMA guidance and ECMWF/GFS runs expected April 16 morning could sharpen probabilities as the resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$2,196Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 17–19°C for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts amid transitioning weather patterns. Recent tenki.jp updates (drawing from JMA data) project a 21°C high under sunny intervals with occasional clouds and 20% precipitation chance, following showers that capped April 15–16 highs at 23–24°C despite mild averages. However, model ensembles reveal 2–3°C spreads due to potential lingering frontal clouds, northerly winds, and variable solar insolation, differentiating outcomes—clearer skies favor 19–20°C, while overcast risks pull toward 17–18°C. Updated JMA guidance and ECMWF/GFS runs expected April 16 morning could sharpen probabilities as the resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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