Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
20°C 32%
19°C 18%
21°C 17%
22°C 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 апр. 2026 г.
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
18%
20°C
32%
21°C
17%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
10%
20°C 32%
19°C 18%
21°C 17%
22°C 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 апр. 2026 г.
14°C or below
$551 Объем
1%
15°C
$537 Объем
1%
16°C
$474 Объем
<1%
17°C
$1,083 Объем
3%
18°C
$388 Объем
5%
19°C
$530 Объем
18%
20°C
$281 Объем
32%
21°C
$209 Объем
17%
22°C
$215 Объем
15%
23°C
$224 Объем
13%
24°C or higher
$603 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Объем
$5,022Дата окончания
16 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$5,022Дата окончания
16 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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