Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Karachi's highest temperature today, April 15, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 28°C, 30°C, and 36°C or higher, driven by conflicting short-term forecast model outputs and recent atmospheric shifts. Pakistan Meteorological Department observations show a cooling trend after April 12's 39.5°C peak, as sea breezes—coastal winds moderating inland heat—resumed yesterday, dropping afternoon highs from 36°C on April 14 amid overcast skies and humidity rises to 80%. Ensemble forecasts like those from open-meteo center on 31°C maxima under partly cloudy conditions, but divergences arise from variable cloud cover suppressing peaks versus potential clear afternoons allowing 36°C+ surges; official station data at Jinnah International Airport will resolve, with updates expected hourly through evening.