Hong Kong Observatory's early morning forecast update on April 15 projects a daytime high of 29°C amid sunny periods, driven by a southerly airstream ushering warm moist air and an anticyclone aloft promoting subsidence for clear skies over the Guangdong coast. This caps trader consensus at near-even market-implied odds of 48.5% for 29°C versus 48% for 30°C or higher, highlighting uncertainty in peak afternoon heating where just 1°C separates outcomes. Differentiating factors include solar insolation intensity under sunnier conditions potentially pushing past 30°C, countered by 65-90% humidity dampening temperatures; historical April highs average lower but align with this year's above-normal seasonal outlook. Hourly observations will refine probabilities as the day progresses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on April 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 15?
29°C 49%
30°C or higher 45%
28°C 5.2%
26°C <1%
$90,686 Объем
$90,686 Объем
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
5%
29°C
49%
30°C or higher
45%
29°C 49%
30°C or higher 45%
28°C 5.2%
26°C <1%
$90,686 Объем
$90,686 Объем
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
5%
29°C
49%
30°C or higher
45%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 13, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's early morning forecast update on April 15 projects a daytime high of 29°C amid sunny periods, driven by a southerly airstream ushering warm moist air and an anticyclone aloft promoting subsidence for clear skies over the Guangdong coast. This caps trader consensus at near-even market-implied odds of 48.5% for 29°C versus 48% for 30°C or higher, highlighting uncertainty in peak afternoon heating where just 1°C separates outcomes. Differentiating factors include solar insolation intensity under sunnier conditions potentially pushing past 30°C, countered by 65-90% humidity dampening temperatures; historical April highs average lower but align with this year's above-normal seasonal outlook. Hourly observations will refine probabilities as the day progresses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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