The market-implied odds heavily favor a US goods-and-services trade deficit in the 70-80 billion range for June 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in the May release of 77.6 billion and advance Census Bureau data showing the goods deficit narrowing to 101.5 billion. Recent monthly patterns, including a sharp May widening driven by elevated imports of AI-related components and vehicles alongside softer exports, have set a base rate that aligns with the dominant bin, while the services surplus continues to provide a partial offset near 29 billion. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 4 official Bureau of Economic Analysis release and any revisions to prior months, which could shift outcomes if import or export figures deviate materially from expectations. Uncertainties remain around seasonal adjustments and potential late data changes that have occasionally altered final tallies by several billion dollars.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено70-80B 91%
60-70B 11%
80-90B 1.5%
50-60B 1.0%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 авг. 2026 г.
<50B
<1%
50-60B
1%
60-70B
11%
70-80B
91%
80-90B
2%
90-100B
<1%
100B+
<1%
70-80B 91%
60-70B 11%
80-90B 1.5%
50-60B 1.0%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 авг. 2026 г.
<50B
$397 Объем
<1%
50-60B
$393 Объем
1%
60-70B
$554 Объем
11%
70-80B
$6,823 Объем
91%
80-90B
$346 Объем
2%
90-100B
$346 Объем
<1%
100B+
$457 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The market-implied odds heavily favor a US goods-and-services trade deficit in the 70-80 billion range for June 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in the May release of 77.6 billion and advance Census Bureau data showing the goods deficit narrowing to 101.5 billion. Recent monthly patterns, including a sharp May widening driven by elevated imports of AI-related components and vehicles alongside softer exports, have set a base rate that aligns with the dominant bin, while the services surplus continues to provide a partial offset near 29 billion. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 4 official Bureau of Economic Analysis release and any revisions to prior months, which could shift outcomes if import or export figures deviate materially from expectations. Uncertainties remain around seasonal adjustments and potential late data changes that have occasionally altered final tallies by several billion dollars.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Объем
$9,315Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The market-implied odds heavily favor a US goods-and-services trade deficit in the 70-80 billion range for June 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in the May release of 77.6 billion and advance Census Bureau data showing the goods deficit narrowing to 101.5 billion. Recent monthly patterns, including a sharp May widening driven by elevated imports of AI-related components and vehicles alongside softer exports, have set a base rate that aligns with the dominant bin, while the services surplus continues to provide a partial offset near 29 billion. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 4 official Bureau of Economic Analysis release and any revisions to prior months, which could shift outcomes if import or export figures deviate materially from expectations. Uncertainties remain around seasonal adjustments and potential late data changes that have occasionally altered final tallies by several billion dollars.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Объем
$9,315Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds heavily favor a US goods-and-services trade deficit in the 70-80 billion range for June 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in the May release of 77.6 billion and advance Census Bureau data showing the goods deficit narrowing to 101.5 billion. Recent monthly patterns, including a sharp May widening driven by elevated imports of AI-related components and vehicles alongside softer exports, have set a base rate that aligns with the dominant bin, while the services surplus continues to provide a partial offset near 29 billion. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 4 official Bureau of Economic Analysis release and any revisions to prior months, which could shift outcomes if import or export figures deviate materially from expectations. Uncertainties remain around seasonal adjustments and potential late data changes that have occasionally altered final tallies by several billion dollars.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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