Mark Lamb, the Republican nominee and former Pinal County sheriff with Trump endorsement, faces Democrat Elizabeth Lee in the November 3 general election for Arizona’s open 5th Congressional District seat. The East Valley and Pinal County district carries a Republican lean, reflected in prior cycles with double-digit GOP margins, yet trader consensus assigns comparable implied probabilities across narrow Republican victory ranges of 0-5, 5-10, and 10-15 points. Recent primaries produced clear winners without prolonged internal divisions, leaving the general-election contest focused on turnout among suburban voters, candidate messaging on local economic and border issues, and any late-cycle national headwinds. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, but market pricing highlights uncertainty over whether Lamb can replicate historical margins or if Lee narrows the gap through targeted outreach. No major developments have shifted positioning in the past month.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วRepublican 10-15% 27%
Republican 5-10% 25%
Republican 15-20% 15%
Republican 0-5% 12.5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 25%+
6%
Republican 20-25%
4%
Republican 15-20%
15%
Republican 10-15%
27%
Republican 5-10%
25%
Republican 0-5%
13%
Democrat 0-5%
<1%
Democrat 5%+
3%
Republican 10-15% 27%
Republican 5-10% 25%
Republican 15-20% 15%
Republican 0-5% 12.5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 25%+
$345 ปริมาณ
6%
Republican 20-25%
$370 ปริมาณ
4%
Republican 15-20%
$927 ปริมาณ
15%
Republican 10-15%
$1,759 ปริมาณ
27%
Republican 5-10%
$2,050 ปริมาณ
25%
Republican 0-5%
$1,252 ปริมาณ
13%
Democrat 0-5%
$428 ปริมาณ
<1%
Democrat 5%+
$278 ปริมาณ
3%
The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mark Lamb, the Republican nominee and former Pinal County sheriff with Trump endorsement, faces Democrat Elizabeth Lee in the November 3 general election for Arizona’s open 5th Congressional District seat. The East Valley and Pinal County district carries a Republican lean, reflected in prior cycles with double-digit GOP margins, yet trader consensus assigns comparable implied probabilities across narrow Republican victory ranges of 0-5, 5-10, and 10-15 points. Recent primaries produced clear winners without prolonged internal divisions, leaving the general-election contest focused on turnout among suburban voters, candidate messaging on local economic and border issues, and any late-cycle national headwinds. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, but market pricing highlights uncertainty over whether Lamb can replicate historical margins or if Lee narrows the gap through targeted outreach. No major developments have shifted positioning in the past month.
The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 7, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,409วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 10:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mark Lamb, the Republican nominee and former Pinal County sheriff with Trump endorsement, faces Democrat Elizabeth Lee in the November 3 general election for Arizona’s open 5th Congressional District seat. The East Valley and Pinal County district carries a Republican lean, reflected in prior cycles with double-digit GOP margins, yet trader consensus assigns comparable implied probabilities across narrow Republican victory ranges of 0-5, 5-10, and 10-15 points. Recent primaries produced clear winners without prolonged internal divisions, leaving the general-election contest focused on turnout among suburban voters, candidate messaging on local economic and border issues, and any late-cycle national headwinds. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, but market pricing highlights uncertainty over whether Lamb can replicate historical margins or if Lee narrows the gap through targeted outreach. No major developments have shifted positioning in the past month.
The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,409วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 10:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Mark Lamb, the Republican nominee and former Pinal County sheriff with Trump endorsement, faces Democrat Elizabeth Lee in the November 3 general election for Arizona’s open 5th Congressional District seat. The East Valley and Pinal County district carries a Republican lean, reflected in prior cycles with double-digit GOP margins, yet trader consensus assigns comparable implied probabilities across narrow Republican victory ranges of 0-5, 5-10, and 10-15 points. Recent primaries produced clear winners without prolonged internal divisions, leaving the general-election contest focused on turnout among suburban voters, candidate messaging on local economic and border issues, and any late-cycle national headwinds. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, but market pricing highlights uncertainty over whether Lamb can replicate historical margins or if Lee narrows the gap through targeted outreach. No major developments have shifted positioning in the past month.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย