Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault exceeds roughly 1,000 km—far short of the global-scale rupture needed for magnitude 10, which would span most of Earth's circumference. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Mw Valdivia event in 1960 Chile, with no magnitude 9+ quakes since 2012's off Sumatra and none in 2024–2026 exceeding 7.6 Mw per USGS catalogs. Continuous global seismic monitoring via USGS networks shows no precursors to unprecedented activity, though rare measurement revisions remain a theoretical wildcard.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2027 'den önce 10.0 veya üzeri deprem?
2027 'den önce 10.0 veya üzeri deprem?
Evet
$555,216 Hac.
$555,216 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$555,216 Hac.
$555,216 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault exceeds roughly 1,000 km—far short of the global-scale rupture needed for magnitude 10, which would span most of Earth's circumference. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Mw Valdivia event in 1960 Chile, with no magnitude 9+ quakes since 2012's off Sumatra and none in 2024–2026 exceeding 7.6 Mw per USGS catalogs. Continuous global seismic monitoring via USGS networks shows no precursors to unprecedented activity, though rare measurement revisions remain a theoretical wildcard.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Hacim
$555,216Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault exceeds roughly 1,000 km—far short of the global-scale rupture needed for magnitude 10, which would span most of Earth's circumference. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Mw Valdivia event in 1960 Chile, with no magnitude 9+ quakes since 2012's off Sumatra and none in 2024–2026 exceeding 7.6 Mw per USGS catalogs. Continuous global seismic monitoring via USGS networks shows no precursors to unprecedented activity, though rare measurement revisions remain a theoretical wildcard.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Hacim
$555,216Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault exceeds roughly 1,000 km—far short of the global-scale rupture needed for magnitude 10, which would span most of Earth's circumference. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Mw Valdivia event in 1960 Chile, with no magnitude 9+ quakes since 2012's off Sumatra and none in 2024–2026 exceeding 7.6 Mw per USGS catalogs. Continuous global seismic monitoring via USGS networks shows no precursors to unprecedented activity, though rare measurement revisions remain a theoretical wildcard.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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