Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic escalations following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata on April 2 over IRGC terrorist listing disputes. Recent U.S. disclosures of a quiet December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN envoy Saadat Aghajani for national security concerns, alongside Saudi Arabia's March 22 removal of Iranian military attachés, marked a short cluster of actions amid Middle East tensions, but no new official announcements, retaliatory signals, or court rulings have emerged in the past 10 days to suggest imminent further moves. With two weeks remaining, traders weigh ongoing proxy conflicts yet prioritize the current lull in verifiable diplomatic expulsions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
YENİ
YENİ
30 Nis 2026
YENİ
YENİ
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic escalations following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata on April 2 over IRGC terrorist listing disputes. Recent U.S. disclosures of a quiet December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN envoy Saadat Aghajani for national security concerns, alongside Saudi Arabia's March 22 removal of Iranian military attachés, marked a short cluster of actions amid Middle East tensions, but no new official announcements, retaliatory signals, or court rulings have emerged in the past 10 days to suggest imminent further moves. With two weeks remaining, traders weigh ongoing proxy conflicts yet prioritize the current lull in verifiable diplomatic expulsions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Hacim
$7,206Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic escalations following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata on April 2 over IRGC terrorist listing disputes. Recent U.S. disclosures of a quiet December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN envoy Saadat Aghajani for national security concerns, alongside Saudi Arabia's March 22 removal of Iranian military attachés, marked a short cluster of actions amid Middle East tensions, but no new official announcements, retaliatory signals, or court rulings have emerged in the past 10 days to suggest imminent further moves. With two weeks remaining, traders weigh ongoing proxy conflicts yet prioritize the current lull in verifiable diplomatic expulsions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$7,206Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic escalations following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata on April 2 over IRGC terrorist listing disputes. Recent U.S. disclosures of a quiet December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN envoy Saadat Aghajani for national security concerns, alongside Saudi Arabia's March 22 removal of Iranian military attachés, marked a short cluster of actions amid Middle East tensions, but no new official announcements, retaliatory signals, or court rulings have emerged in the past 10 days to suggest imminent further moves. With two weeks remaining, traders weigh ongoing proxy conflicts yet prioritize the current lull in verifiable diplomatic expulsions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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