Trader consensus prices an 88.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following a cluster of high-profile moves earlier this spring. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon declared Iranian envoys persona non grata in late March amid heightened regional tensions and alleged attacks, while Argentina expelled chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani on April 4 over disputes labeling IRGC terrorists. A U.S. disclosure of its December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN envoy surfaced April 3, but no fresh U.S. State Department measures have followed. With no new provocations reported in the past two weeks, ongoing ceasefire mediation efforts, and just two weeks remaining, traders see scant catalysts for further escalation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi30 Nisan'da sınır dışı edilen başka bir İranlı diplomat mı?
30 Nisan'da sınır dışı edilen başka bir İranlı diplomat mı?
YENİ
YENİ
30 Nis 2026
YENİ
YENİ
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices an 88.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following a cluster of high-profile moves earlier this spring. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon declared Iranian envoys persona non grata in late March amid heightened regional tensions and alleged attacks, while Argentina expelled chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani on April 4 over disputes labeling IRGC terrorists. A U.S. disclosure of its December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN envoy surfaced April 3, but no fresh U.S. State Department measures have followed. With no new provocations reported in the past two weeks, ongoing ceasefire mediation efforts, and just two weeks remaining, traders see scant catalysts for further escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Hacim
$8,791Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices an 88.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following a cluster of high-profile moves earlier this spring. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon declared Iranian envoys persona non grata in late March amid heightened regional tensions and alleged attacks, while Argentina expelled chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani on April 4 over disputes labeling IRGC terrorists. A U.S. disclosure of its December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN envoy surfaced April 3, but no fresh U.S. State Department measures have followed. With no new provocations reported in the past two weeks, ongoing ceasefire mediation efforts, and just two weeks remaining, traders see scant catalysts for further escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$8,791Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 88.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following a cluster of high-profile moves earlier this spring. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon declared Iranian envoys persona non grata in late March amid heightened regional tensions and alleged attacks, while Argentina expelled chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani on April 4 over disputes labeling IRGC terrorists. A U.S. disclosure of its December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN envoy surfaced April 3, but no fresh U.S. State Department measures have followed. With no new provocations reported in the past two weeks, ongoing ceasefire mediation efforts, and just two weeks remaining, traders see scant catalysts for further escalation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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