Trader consensus on Polymarket favors an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the pre-industrial baseline at 45.5% implied probability, reflecting recent Copernicus ERA5 data showing March 2026 at 1.48ºC above pre-industrial—the fourth-warmest March on record—with sea surface temperatures hitting the second-highest March value amid ENSO-neutral conditions. These neutral ENSO conditions, favored through June by NOAA and IRI forecasts (80% chance), temper expectations for an El Niño-driven spike seen in prior record months, aligning odds with historical April analogs under similar phases. Elevated baseline warming from greenhouse gases sustains high anomalies, though model ensembles like Copernicus multi-system seasonal outlooks signal above-normal temperatures with inherent variability; final ERA5 confirmation expected late April will sharpen resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNisan 2026 Sıcaklık Artışı (ºC)
Nisan 2026 Sıcaklık Artışı (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
1,20–1,24ºC 34%
1,10–1,14ºC 11%
1,25–1,29ºC 8%
$121,217 Hac.
$121,217 Hac.
10 May 2026
<1,10ºC
4%
1,10–1,14ºC
11%
1,15–1,19ºC
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
34%
1,25–1,29ºC
8%
>1,29ºC
6%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
1,20–1,24ºC 34%
1,10–1,14ºC 11%
1,25–1,29ºC 8%
$121,217 Hac.
$121,217 Hac.
10 May 2026
<1,10ºC
$28,387 Hac.
4%
1,10–1,14ºC
$23,018 Hac.
11%
1,15–1,19ºC
$13,890 Hac.
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
$16,128 Hac.
34%
1,25–1,29ºC
$27,729 Hac.
8%
>1,29ºC
$12,065 Hac.
6%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the pre-industrial baseline at 45.5% implied probability, reflecting recent Copernicus ERA5 data showing March 2026 at 1.48ºC above pre-industrial—the fourth-warmest March on record—with sea surface temperatures hitting the second-highest March value amid ENSO-neutral conditions. These neutral ENSO conditions, favored through June by NOAA and IRI forecasts (80% chance), temper expectations for an El Niño-driven spike seen in prior record months, aligning odds with historical April analogs under similar phases. Elevated baseline warming from greenhouse gases sustains high anomalies, though model ensembles like Copernicus multi-system seasonal outlooks signal above-normal temperatures with inherent variability; final ERA5 confirmation expected late April will sharpen resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Hacim
$121,217Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the pre-industrial baseline at 45.5% implied probability, reflecting recent Copernicus ERA5 data showing March 2026 at 1.48ºC above pre-industrial—the fourth-warmest March on record—with sea surface temperatures hitting the second-highest March value amid ENSO-neutral conditions. These neutral ENSO conditions, favored through June by NOAA and IRI forecasts (80% chance), temper expectations for an El Niño-driven spike seen in prior record months, aligning odds with historical April analogs under similar phases. Elevated baseline warming from greenhouse gases sustains high anomalies, though model ensembles like Copernicus multi-system seasonal outlooks signal above-normal temperatures with inherent variability; final ERA5 confirmation expected late April will sharpen resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Hacim
$121,217Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the pre-industrial baseline at 45.5% implied probability, reflecting recent Copernicus ERA5 data showing March 2026 at 1.48ºC above pre-industrial—the fourth-warmest March on record—with sea surface temperatures hitting the second-highest March value amid ENSO-neutral conditions. These neutral ENSO conditions, favored through June by NOAA and IRI forecasts (80% chance), temper expectations for an El Niño-driven spike seen in prior record months, aligning odds with historical April analogs under similar phases. Elevated baseline warming from greenhouse gases sustains high anomalies, though model ensembles like Copernicus multi-system seasonal outlooks signal above-normal temperatures with inherent variability; final ERA5 confirmation expected late April will sharpen resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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