Polymarket traders price an 85.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June meeting, reflecting seven consecutive 50 basis point cuts to the current 15% level amid sustained disinflation and Q1 2026 GDP deceleration. March CPI held steady at 5.9% year-over-year—above the 5.8% consensus but within the central bank's 4.5-5.5% 2026 forecast corridor—bolstered by stable household inflation expectations and moderating business price pressures. Slowing economic expansion to 0.5-1.5% supports further monetary easing, outweighing low 9% odds of no change or 6.3% for a hike. The April 24 decision looms as the key near-term catalyst influencing June positioning.