Polymarket traders assign an 86% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June 2026 meeting, driven by sustained disinflation—annual CPI steady at 5.9% in March—and Q1 economic growth deceleration to 0.5-1.5%, aligning with the central bank's forecasts. Recent 50 basis point cuts to 15% in February and March signal ongoing monetary easing to support a balanced economy, while household inflation expectations eased to 12.9% in April. No-change (10%) and increase (7.3%) odds reflect residual pro-inflationary risks from fiscal pressures and global uncertainty. Traders eye the May 7 decision and April inflation data as key catalysts ahead of June.