Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a strong 92.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by recent hotter-than-expected inflation and resilient labor market data. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%; these reinforced the Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid projections for just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. The April 28-29 FOMC—priced at 99% for no change—looms as the next catalyst, though unexpectedly soft April CPI (due May 12) or weakening job growth could challenge this positioning by reviving easing expectations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHaziran'da Fed Kararı mı?
Haziran'da Fed Kararı mı?
Değişiklik yok 93%
25 baz puan düşüş 5%
25 baz puan artış 1.9%
50+ baz puanlık düşüş 1.1%
$8,533,107 Hac.
$8,533,107 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
50+ baz puanlık düşüş
1%
25 baz puan düşüş
5%
Değişiklik yok
93%
25 baz puan artış
2%
50+ baz puan artış
1%
Değişiklik yok 93%
25 baz puan düşüş 5%
25 baz puan artış 1.9%
50+ baz puanlık düşüş 1.1%
$8,533,107 Hac.
$8,533,107 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
50+ baz puanlık düşüş
$2,452,067 Hac.
1%
25 baz puan düşüş
$1,293,944 Hac.
5%
Değişiklik yok
$1,581,264 Hac.
93%
25 baz puan artış
$1,729,496 Hac.
2%
50+ baz puan artış
$1,478,731 Hac.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a strong 92.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by recent hotter-than-expected inflation and resilient labor market data. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%; these reinforced the Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid projections for just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. The April 28-29 FOMC—priced at 99% for no change—looms as the next catalyst, though unexpectedly soft April CPI (due May 12) or weakening job growth could challenge this positioning by reviving easing expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Hacim
$8,533,107Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a strong 92.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by recent hotter-than-expected inflation and resilient labor market data. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%; these reinforced the Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid projections for just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. The April 28-29 FOMC—priced at 99% for no change—looms as the next catalyst, though unexpectedly soft April CPI (due May 12) or weakening job growth could challenge this positioning by reviving easing expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$8,533,107Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a strong 92.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by recent hotter-than-expected inflation and resilient labor market data. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%; these reinforced the Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid projections for just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. The April 28-29 FOMC—priced at 99% for no change—looms as the next catalyst, though unexpectedly soft April CPI (due May 12) or weakening job growth could challenge this positioning by reviving easing expectations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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