Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles, implying highs of 12°C or 13°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) amid cool northerly winds advecting continental air masses and persistent stratiform cloud cover limiting solar insolation. This setup diverges from April climatological averages of 16°C, driven by a recent low-pressure trough over the Black Sea enhancing cool advection over the past 48 hours. Differentiating factors include model spread in afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud breaks—thicker overcast favors 12°C maxima, partial clearing 13°C—yielding 39% odds apiece. Real-time NOAA observations and 12z model updates today could refine probabilities as peak heating nears.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 16?
12°C 44%
13°C 38%
14°C 17%
15°C 2.1%
YENİ
$25,677 Hac.
YENİ
$25,677 Hac.
16 Nis 2026
11°C
<1%
12°C
44%
13°C
38%
14°C
17%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
12°C 44%
13°C 38%
14°C 17%
15°C 2.1%
YENİ
$25,677 Hac.
YENİ
$25,677 Hac.
16 Nis 2026
11°C
$7,024 Hac.
<1%
12°C
$1,396 Hac.
44%
13°C
$905 Hac.
38%
14°C
$1,074 Hac.
17%
15°C
$4,377 Hac.
2%
16°C
$4,575 Hac.
1%
17°C
$1,249 Hac.
<1%
18°C
$816 Hac.
<1%
19°C
$777 Hac.
<1%
20°C or higher
$591 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles, implying highs of 12°C or 13°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) amid cool northerly winds advecting continental air masses and persistent stratiform cloud cover limiting solar insolation. This setup diverges from April climatological averages of 16°C, driven by a recent low-pressure trough over the Black Sea enhancing cool advection over the past 48 hours. Differentiating factors include model spread in afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud breaks—thicker overcast favors 12°C maxima, partial clearing 13°C—yielding 39% odds apiece. Real-time NOAA observations and 12z model updates today could refine probabilities as peak heating nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Hacim
$25,677Bitiş Tarihi
16 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles, implying highs of 12°C or 13°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) amid cool northerly winds advecting continental air masses and persistent stratiform cloud cover limiting solar insolation. This setup diverges from April climatological averages of 16°C, driven by a recent low-pressure trough over the Black Sea enhancing cool advection over the past 48 hours. Differentiating factors include model spread in afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud breaks—thicker overcast favors 12°C maxima, partial clearing 13°C—yielding 39% odds apiece. Real-time NOAA observations and 12z model updates today could refine probabilities as peak heating nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$25,677Bitiş Tarihi
16 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles, implying highs of 12°C or 13°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) amid cool northerly winds advecting continental air masses and persistent stratiform cloud cover limiting solar insolation. This setup diverges from April climatological averages of 16°C, driven by a recent low-pressure trough over the Black Sea enhancing cool advection over the past 48 hours. Differentiating factors include model spread in afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud breaks—thicker overcast favors 12°C maxima, partial clearing 13°C—yielding 39% odds apiece. Real-time NOAA observations and 12z model updates today could refine probabilities as peak heating nears.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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