Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 300,000–400,000 ICE removals in 2026 at 36%, reflecting the April 15 release of fiscal year 2025 data showing 442,637 deportations—up sharply from prior years but below mass deportation pledges—combined with early 2026 surges in interior arrests averaging over 1,100 daily through March. A fivefold rise in post-arrest deportations noted in January per the Deportation Data Project underscores ramped enforcement via executive actions and expanded detention peaking at 73,000 beds, yet logistical barriers like repatriation flight constraints, third-country deal hurdles, and a 1.5 million non-detained removal docket cap scaling. Upcoming congressional appropriations and diplomatic pacts could boost higher buckets, though historical base rates suggest tempered growth amid court backlogs and capacity limits.