Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have significantly degraded infrastructure at sites like Natanz and Isfahan, setting back Tehran's atomic capabilities without fully dismantling them, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes or resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. A February 2026 IAEA report highlighted Iran's stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but noted denied access to damaged sites, prompting UN nuclear chief calls on April 15 for inspections amid potential war-ending diplomacy. With no seismic evidence of testing despite occasional earthquake rumors, and amid Strait of Hormuz blockade pressures, trader consensus reflects formidable technical, military, and diplomatic barriers to a pre-2027 detonation, though regime desperation or covert advances could shift odds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$170,590 Hac.
$170,590 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$170,590 Hac.
$170,590 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have significantly degraded infrastructure at sites like Natanz and Isfahan, setting back Tehran's atomic capabilities without fully dismantling them, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes or resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. A February 2026 IAEA report highlighted Iran's stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but noted denied access to damaged sites, prompting UN nuclear chief calls on April 15 for inspections amid potential war-ending diplomacy. With no seismic evidence of testing despite occasional earthquake rumors, and amid Strait of Hormuz blockade pressures, trader consensus reflects formidable technical, military, and diplomatic barriers to a pre-2027 detonation, though regime desperation or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Hacim
$170,590Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have significantly degraded infrastructure at sites like Natanz and Isfahan, setting back Tehran's atomic capabilities without fully dismantling them, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes or resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. A February 2026 IAEA report highlighted Iran's stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but noted denied access to damaged sites, prompting UN nuclear chief calls on April 15 for inspections amid potential war-ending diplomacy. With no seismic evidence of testing despite occasional earthquake rumors, and amid Strait of Hormuz blockade pressures, trader consensus reflects formidable technical, military, and diplomatic barriers to a pre-2027 detonation, though regime desperation or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$170,590Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have significantly degraded infrastructure at sites like Natanz and Isfahan, setting back Tehran's atomic capabilities without fully dismantling them, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes or resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. A February 2026 IAEA report highlighted Iran's stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but noted denied access to damaged sites, prompting UN nuclear chief calls on April 15 for inspections amid potential war-ending diplomacy. With no seismic evidence of testing despite occasional earthquake rumors, and amid Strait of Hormuz blockade pressures, trader consensus reflects formidable technical, military, and diplomatic barriers to a pre-2027 detonation, though regime desperation or covert advances could shift odds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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