Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this September, driven primarily by the record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 for the second-smallest in the 48-year satellite record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average, per NSIDC data. This reflects thinner multi-year ice and lower overall volume entering the melt season, exacerbated by persistent atmospheric and oceanic warming trends. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecasts initialized in late March show reduced sea ice probabilities through summer, though models acknowledge uncertainty from variable weather patterns like steering winds and cloud cover. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks and monthly NSIDC updates will refine these projections as melt accelerates.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBu yaz minimum Arktik deniz buzu miktarı?
Bu yaz minimum Arktik deniz buzu miktarı?
<4 milyon km² 52%
4,0-4,2m km² 15.2%
4,2-4,4m km² 11.3%
4,4-4,6 milyon km² 11.3%
$31,084 Hac.
$31,084 Hac.
1 Eki 2026
<4 milyon km²
52%
4,0-4,2m km²
15%
4,2-4,4m km²
11%
4,4-4,6 milyon km²
11%
4.6-4.8m km²
10%
4,8-5 milyon km²
1%
5m+ km²
1%
<4 milyon km² 52%
4,0-4,2m km² 15.2%
4,2-4,4m km² 11.3%
4,4-4,6 milyon km² 11.3%
$31,084 Hac.
$31,084 Hac.
1 Eki 2026
<4 milyon km²
$23,866 Hac.
52%
4,0-4,2m km²
$2,456 Hac.
15%
4,2-4,4m km²
$787 Hac.
11%
4,4-4,6 milyon km²
$940 Hac.
11%
4.6-4.8m km²
$1,670 Hac.
10%
4,8-5 milyon km²
$605 Hac.
1%
5m+ km²
$760 Hac.
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this September, driven primarily by the record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 for the second-smallest in the 48-year satellite record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average, per NSIDC data. This reflects thinner multi-year ice and lower overall volume entering the melt season, exacerbated by persistent atmospheric and oceanic warming trends. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecasts initialized in late March show reduced sea ice probabilities through summer, though models acknowledge uncertainty from variable weather patterns like steering winds and cloud cover. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks and monthly NSIDC updates will refine these projections as melt accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Hacim
$31,084Bitiş Tarihi
1 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this September, driven primarily by the record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 for the second-smallest in the 48-year satellite record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average, per NSIDC data. This reflects thinner multi-year ice and lower overall volume entering the melt season, exacerbated by persistent atmospheric and oceanic warming trends. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecasts initialized in late March show reduced sea ice probabilities through summer, though models acknowledge uncertainty from variable weather patterns like steering winds and cloud cover. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks and monthly NSIDC updates will refine these projections as melt accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Hacim
$31,084Bitiş Tarihi
1 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this September, driven primarily by the record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 for the second-smallest in the 48-year satellite record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average, per NSIDC data. This reflects thinner multi-year ice and lower overall volume entering the melt season, exacerbated by persistent atmospheric and oceanic warming trends. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecasts initialized in late March show reduced sea ice probabilities through summer, though models acknowledge uncertainty from variable weather patterns like steering winds and cloud cover. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks and monthly NSIDC updates will refine these projections as melt accelerates.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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