Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not normalize by April 30, driven by entrenched US-Iran conflict dynamics. Since late February 2026, Iran has imposed selective transit controls amid war escalation, slashing volumes to under 10% of pre-conflict norms per Kpler and AIS data from MarineTraffic—recent 24-hour transits hover at mere single digits versus 140 daily averages. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 14, has intercepted outbound vessels while allowing limited sanctioned tanker passages, sustaining chokepoint paralysis despite ceasefire rhetoric. Diplomatic proposals for Omani-side safe passage remain unconfirmed, with trader capital pricing in prolonged restrictions absent major de-escalation breakthroughs.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$9,906,579 Hac.
$9,906,579 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Evet
$9,906,579 Hac.
$9,906,579 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not normalize by April 30, driven by entrenched US-Iran conflict dynamics. Since late February 2026, Iran has imposed selective transit controls amid war escalation, slashing volumes to under 10% of pre-conflict norms per Kpler and AIS data from MarineTraffic—recent 24-hour transits hover at mere single digits versus 140 daily averages. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 14, has intercepted outbound vessels while allowing limited sanctioned tanker passages, sustaining chokepoint paralysis despite ceasefire rhetoric. Diplomatic proposals for Omani-side safe passage remain unconfirmed, with trader capital pricing in prolonged restrictions absent major de-escalation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Hacim
$9,906,579Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not normalize by April 30, driven by entrenched US-Iran conflict dynamics. Since late February 2026, Iran has imposed selective transit controls amid war escalation, slashing volumes to under 10% of pre-conflict norms per Kpler and AIS data from MarineTraffic—recent 24-hour transits hover at mere single digits versus 140 daily averages. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 14, has intercepted outbound vessels while allowing limited sanctioned tanker passages, sustaining chokepoint paralysis despite ceasefire rhetoric. Diplomatic proposals for Omani-side safe passage remain unconfirmed, with trader capital pricing in prolonged restrictions absent major de-escalation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Hacim
$9,906,961Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not normalize by April 30, driven by entrenched US-Iran conflict dynamics. Since late February 2026, Iran has imposed selective transit controls amid war escalation, slashing volumes to under 10% of pre-conflict norms per Kpler and AIS data from MarineTraffic—recent 24-hour transits hover at mere single digits versus 140 daily averages. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 14, has intercepted outbound vessels while allowing limited sanctioned tanker passages, sustaining chokepoint paralysis despite ceasefire rhetoric. Diplomatic proposals for Omani-side safe passage remain unconfirmed, with trader capital pricing in prolonged restrictions absent major de-escalation breakthroughs.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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