Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal—defined as approximately 130-140 daily transits—by April's end, driven by persistent dual blockades amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis. Iran has maintained tight control since late February 2026, limiting passages to 6-19 vessels per day (mostly Iran-linked), while the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 13, has further deterred commercial flows to under 10% of pre-crisis norms per ship-tracking data from Kpler and Bloomberg. Stalled ceasefire talks and reports of Iranian tolls have entrenched low volumes, with no surge observed in the past week. Key catalysts include diplomatic breakthroughs or phased blockade lifts, potentially shifting sentiment ahead of May projections.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$9,892,386 Hac.
$9,892,386 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Evet
$9,892,386 Hac.
$9,892,386 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal—defined as approximately 130-140 daily transits—by April's end, driven by persistent dual blockades amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis. Iran has maintained tight control since late February 2026, limiting passages to 6-19 vessels per day (mostly Iran-linked), while the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 13, has further deterred commercial flows to under 10% of pre-crisis norms per ship-tracking data from Kpler and Bloomberg. Stalled ceasefire talks and reports of Iranian tolls have entrenched low volumes, with no surge observed in the past week. Key catalysts include diplomatic breakthroughs or phased blockade lifts, potentially shifting sentiment ahead of May projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Hacim
$9,892,386Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal—defined as approximately 130-140 daily transits—by April's end, driven by persistent dual blockades amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis. Iran has maintained tight control since late February 2026, limiting passages to 6-19 vessels per day (mostly Iran-linked), while the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 13, has further deterred commercial flows to under 10% of pre-crisis norms per ship-tracking data from Kpler and Bloomberg. Stalled ceasefire talks and reports of Iranian tolls have entrenched low volumes, with no surge observed in the past week. Key catalysts include diplomatic breakthroughs or phased blockade lifts, potentially shifting sentiment ahead of May projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Hacim
$9,898,936Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal—defined as approximately 130-140 daily transits—by April's end, driven by persistent dual blockades amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis. Iran has maintained tight control since late February 2026, limiting passages to 6-19 vessels per day (mostly Iran-linked), while the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 13, has further deterred commercial flows to under 10% of pre-crisis norms per ship-tracking data from Kpler and Bloomberg. Stalled ceasefire talks and reports of Iranian tolls have entrenched low volumes, with no surge observed in the past week. Key catalysts include diplomatic breakthroughs or phased blockade lifts, potentially shifting sentiment ahead of May projections.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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