Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendiİran 30 Nisan'a kadar neye karşı askeri eylemde bulunacak?
İran 30 Nisan'a kadar neye karşı askeri eylemde bulunacak?
$463,743 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Ruwais Rafinerisi
25%
Habshan Sahası/İşleme Kompleksi
22%
Ras Laffan Endüstri Şehri
22%
Ras Tanura
19%
Khurais Sahası
19%
Abqaiq petrol işleme tesisi
14%
Al Zour Rafinerisi
13%
Ghawar Sahası
11%
Safaniya Sahası
10%
Leviathan Sahası
8%
Burj Khalifa
5%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nükleer Araştırma Merkezi)
2%
$463,743 Hac.
Ruwais Rafinerisi
$39,648 Hac.
25%
Habshan Sahası/İşleme Kompleksi
$46,277 Hac.
22%
Ras Laffan Endüstri Şehri
$35,851 Hac.
22%
Ras Tanura
$37,991 Hac.
19%
Khurais Sahası
$14,786 Hac.
19%
Abqaiq petrol işleme tesisi
$38,125 Hac.
14%
Al Zour Rafinerisi
$30,213 Hac.
13%
Ghawar Sahası
$12,229 Hac.
11%
Safaniya Sahası
$11,512 Hac.
10%
Leviathan Sahası
$7,662 Hac.
8%
Burj Khalifa
$7,980 Hac.
5%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nükleer Araştırma Merkezi)
$78,280 Hac.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Hacim
$463,743Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Hacim
$463,743Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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