Polymarket traders price a federal funds rate of 3.75% (31%) or 3.5% (29%) at end-2026 with near parity, mirroring the FOMC's March 2026 dot plot median of 3.4% amid a split among officials—seven foresee no cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, while others eye one 25-basis-point reduction. Resilient labor markets (unemployment projected at 4.4%) and sticky core PCE inflation near 2.8% year-over-year have tempered cut expectations, reinforced by the Fed's hold at the March 17-18 meeting despite stronger-than-expected GDP forecasts. Key swing factors include April 10 CPI data, upcoming nonfarm payrolls, and the April 28-29 FOMC, where a 95% hold probability looms before potential late-year easing if disinflation resumes.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'nın sonunda Fed faizi ne olacak?
2026 'nın sonunda Fed faizi ne olacak?
%3,5 37%
%3,75 31.3%
%3,25 10%
%4,0 6.0%
$6,267,715 Hac.
$6,267,715 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
%1,0 veya daha düşük
1%
1,25
3%
%1,5
1%
%1,75
1%
%2,0
1%
%2,25
1%
%2,5
1%
%2,75
3%
%3,0
3%
%3,25
10%
%3,5
37%
%3,75
31%
%4,0
6%
%4,25
3%
≥ %4,5
3%
%3,5 37%
%3,75 31.3%
%3,25 10%
%4,0 6.0%
$6,267,715 Hac.
$6,267,715 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
%1,0 veya daha düşük
$209,405 Hac.
1%
1,25
$111,883 Hac.
3%
%1,5
$124,692 Hac.
1%
%1,75
$119,015 Hac.
1%
%2,0
$160,705 Hac.
1%
%2,25
$63,475 Hac.
1%
%2,5
$151,258 Hac.
1%
%2,75
$25,542 Hac.
3%
%3,0
$439,632 Hac.
3%
%3,25
$41,365 Hac.
10%
%3,5
$183,041 Hac.
37%
%3,75
$496,629 Hac.
31%
%4,0
$1,345,239 Hac.
6%
%4,25
$406,531 Hac.
3%
≥ %4,5
$2,389,304 Hac.
3%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a federal funds rate of 3.75% (31%) or 3.5% (29%) at end-2026 with near parity, mirroring the FOMC's March 2026 dot plot median of 3.4% amid a split among officials—seven foresee no cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, while others eye one 25-basis-point reduction. Resilient labor markets (unemployment projected at 4.4%) and sticky core PCE inflation near 2.8% year-over-year have tempered cut expectations, reinforced by the Fed's hold at the March 17-18 meeting despite stronger-than-expected GDP forecasts. Key swing factors include April 10 CPI data, upcoming nonfarm payrolls, and the April 28-29 FOMC, where a 95% hold probability looms before potential late-year easing if disinflation resumes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Hacim
$6,267,715Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a federal funds rate of 3.75% (31%) or 3.5% (29%) at end-2026 with near parity, mirroring the FOMC's March 2026 dot plot median of 3.4% amid a split among officials—seven foresee no cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, while others eye one 25-basis-point reduction. Resilient labor markets (unemployment projected at 4.4%) and sticky core PCE inflation near 2.8% year-over-year have tempered cut expectations, reinforced by the Fed's hold at the March 17-18 meeting despite stronger-than-expected GDP forecasts. Key swing factors include April 10 CPI data, upcoming nonfarm payrolls, and the April 28-29 FOMC, where a 95% hold probability looms before potential late-year easing if disinflation resumes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Hacim
$6,267,715Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a federal funds rate of 3.75% (31%) or 3.5% (29%) at end-2026 with near parity, mirroring the FOMC's March 2026 dot plot median of 3.4% amid a split among officials—seven foresee no cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, while others eye one 25-basis-point reduction. Resilient labor markets (unemployment projected at 4.4%) and sticky core PCE inflation near 2.8% year-over-year have tempered cut expectations, reinforced by the Fed's hold at the March 17-18 meeting despite stronger-than-expected GDP forecasts. Key swing factors include April 10 CPI data, upcoming nonfarm payrolls, and the April 28-29 FOMC, where a 95% hold probability looms before potential late-year easing if disinflation resumes.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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