Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between 3.5% (36% implied probability) and 3.75% (31%) for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with the current 3.50%-3.75% target range holding steady after the March FOMC meeting. Surging March CPI to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024, fueled by geopolitical oil shocks—has eroded cut expectations, pushing odds higher than the Fed's 3.4% dot plot median implying one 25 basis point reduction. Resilient labor markets and elevated core inflation underpin the no-cut pricing, while upcoming April 28-29 FOMC deliberations and May CPI data loom as pivotal swing factors that could tip the balance toward further pauses or modest easing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'nın sonunda Fed faizi ne olacak?
2026 'nın sonunda Fed faizi ne olacak?
%3,5 36%
%3,75 31.3%
%3,25 10%
%4,0 6.0%
$6,291,138 Hac.
$6,291,138 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
%1,0 veya daha düşük
2%
1,25
2%
%1,5
1%
%1,75
1%
%2,0
1%
%2,25
1%
%2,5
1%
%2,75
3%
%3,0
3%
%3,25
10%
%3,5
36%
%3,75
31%
%4,0
6%
%4,25
3%
≥ %4,5
3%
%3,5 36%
%3,75 31.3%
%3,25 10%
%4,0 6.0%
$6,291,138 Hac.
$6,291,138 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
%1,0 veya daha düşük
$211,750 Hac.
2%
1,25
$111,883 Hac.
2%
%1,5
$124,692 Hac.
1%
%1,75
$125,251 Hac.
1%
%2,0
$173,937 Hac.
1%
%2,25
$63,475 Hac.
1%
%2,5
$152,868 Hac.
1%
%2,75
$25,542 Hac.
3%
%3,0
$439,632 Hac.
3%
%3,25
$41,365 Hac.
10%
%3,5
$183,041 Hac.
36%
%3,75
$496,629 Hac.
31%
%4,0
$1,345,239 Hac.
6%
%4,25
$406,531 Hac.
3%
≥ %4,5
$2,389,304 Hac.
3%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between 3.5% (36% implied probability) and 3.75% (31%) for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with the current 3.50%-3.75% target range holding steady after the March FOMC meeting. Surging March CPI to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024, fueled by geopolitical oil shocks—has eroded cut expectations, pushing odds higher than the Fed's 3.4% dot plot median implying one 25 basis point reduction. Resilient labor markets and elevated core inflation underpin the no-cut pricing, while upcoming April 28-29 FOMC deliberations and May CPI data loom as pivotal swing factors that could tip the balance toward further pauses or modest easing.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Hacim
$6,291,138Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between 3.5% (36% implied probability) and 3.75% (31%) for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with the current 3.50%-3.75% target range holding steady after the March FOMC meeting. Surging March CPI to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024, fueled by geopolitical oil shocks—has eroded cut expectations, pushing odds higher than the Fed's 3.4% dot plot median implying one 25 basis point reduction. Resilient labor markets and elevated core inflation underpin the no-cut pricing, while upcoming April 28-29 FOMC deliberations and May CPI data loom as pivotal swing factors that could tip the balance toward further pauses or modest easing.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Hacim
$6,291,138Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between 3.5% (36% implied probability) and 3.75% (31%) for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with the current 3.50%-3.75% target range holding steady after the March FOMC meeting. Surging March CPI to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024, fueled by geopolitical oil shocks—has eroded cut expectations, pushing odds higher than the Fed's 3.4% dot plot median implying one 25 basis point reduction. Resilient labor markets and elevated core inflation underpin the no-cut pricing, while upcoming April 28-29 FOMC deliberations and May CPI data loom as pivotal swing factors that could tip the balance toward further pauses or modest easing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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