**Elevated inflation and geopolitical supply shocks have anchored trader expectations for no rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July—the fifth consecutive pause—despite three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike in July amid rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. With inflation remaining above the 2% goal and the labor market showing steady job gains alongside little change in unemployment, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 63.5%. The slim 1.1% probability on Pause–Pause–Cut reflects the absence of cooling data needed to support easing, while the 35.5% “Other” bucket captures scenarios involving a September hike. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release, upcoming FOMC minutes on August 19, and the September 15–16 meeting with fresh economic projections, all of which will test whether inflation pressures persist or moderate enough to sustain the current pause path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 64%
Other 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.0%
$695,122 Обс.
$695,122 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
64%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
36%
Pause–Pause–Pause 64%
Other 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.0%
$695,122 Обс.
$695,122 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$279,097 Обс.
64%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,079 Обс.
1%
Other
$298,069 Обс.
36%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and geopolitical supply shocks have anchored trader expectations for no rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July—the fifth consecutive pause—despite three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike in July amid rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. With inflation remaining above the 2% goal and the labor market showing steady job gains alongside little change in unemployment, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 63.5%. The slim 1.1% probability on Pause–Pause–Cut reflects the absence of cooling data needed to support easing, while the 35.5% “Other” bucket captures scenarios involving a September hike. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release, upcoming FOMC minutes on August 19, and the September 15–16 meeting with fresh economic projections, all of which will test whether inflation pressures persist or moderate enough to sustain the current pause path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$695,122Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and geopolitical supply shocks have anchored trader expectations for no rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July—the fifth consecutive pause—despite three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike in July amid rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. With inflation remaining above the 2% goal and the labor market showing steady job gains alongside little change in unemployment, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 63.5%. The slim 1.1% probability on Pause–Pause–Cut reflects the absence of cooling data needed to support easing, while the 35.5% “Other” bucket captures scenarios involving a September hike. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release, upcoming FOMC minutes on August 19, and the September 15–16 meeting with fresh economic projections, all of which will test whether inflation pressures persist or moderate enough to sustain the current pause path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$695,122Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation and geopolitical supply shocks have anchored trader expectations for no rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July—the fifth consecutive pause—despite three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike in July amid rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. With inflation remaining above the 2% goal and the labor market showing steady job gains alongside little change in unemployment, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 63.5%. The slim 1.1% probability on Pause–Pause–Cut reflects the absence of cooling data needed to support easing, while the 35.5% “Other” bucket captures scenarios involving a September hike. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release, upcoming FOMC minutes on August 19, and the September 15–16 meeting with fresh economic projections, all of which will test whether inflation pressures persist or moderate enough to sustain the current pause path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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