Recent forecast model consensus from meteorological agencies indicates a cooling trend in Moscow driven by increased cloud cover, light winds, and limited warm-air advection ahead of a frontal passage, positioning daily maximum temperatures near 17–18°C on August 12. This aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes amid observed cooling from early-August peaks above 30°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainties in exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing, with historical August baselines around 20–23°C providing context but yielding to current synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and afternoon observations through the resolution window remain the key variables that could shift the narrow probability distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on August 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 12?
17°C 35%
18°C 34%
19°C 14%
16°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
5%
14°C
6%
15°C
8%
16°C
10%
17°C
35%
18°C
34%
19°C
14%
20°C
5%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
3%
17°C 35%
18°C 34%
19°C 14%
16°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
12°C or below
$30 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$12 Обс.
5%
14°C
$12 Обс.
6%
15°C
$26 Обс.
8%
16°C
$187 Обс.
10%
17°C
$49 Обс.
35%
18°C
$46 Обс.
34%
19°C
$148 Обс.
14%
20°C
$37 Обс.
5%
21°C
$39 Обс.
3%
22°C or higher
$17 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from meteorological agencies indicates a cooling trend in Moscow driven by increased cloud cover, light winds, and limited warm-air advection ahead of a frontal passage, positioning daily maximum temperatures near 17–18°C on August 12. This aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes amid observed cooling from early-August peaks above 30°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainties in exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing, with historical August baselines around 20–23°C providing context but yielding to current synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and afternoon observations through the resolution window remain the key variables that could shift the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$605Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from meteorological agencies indicates a cooling trend in Moscow driven by increased cloud cover, light winds, and limited warm-air advection ahead of a frontal passage, positioning daily maximum temperatures near 17–18°C on August 12. This aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes amid observed cooling from early-August peaks above 30°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainties in exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing, with historical August baselines around 20–23°C providing context but yielding to current synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and afternoon observations through the resolution window remain the key variables that could shift the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$605Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from meteorological agencies indicates a cooling trend in Moscow driven by increased cloud cover, light winds, and limited warm-air advection ahead of a frontal passage, positioning daily maximum temperatures near 17–18°C on August 12. This aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes amid observed cooling from early-August peaks above 30°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainties in exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing, with historical August baselines around 20–23°C providing context but yielding to current synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and afternoon observations through the resolution window remain the key variables that could shift the narrow probability distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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