Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models place Tokyo’s August 12 overnight low near 23–24 °C under a persistent Pacific High, with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit radiational cooling. These conditions produce market-implied odds clustered tightly between 23 °C (33 %) and 24 °C (34.5 %), reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Urban heat-island effects and humidity above 80 % further moderate temperature drops, while any earlier clearing could allow slightly cooler readings near 22 °C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
24°C 35%
23°C 27%
22°C 17%
21°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
6%
21°C
9%
22°C
17%
23°C
27%
24°C
35%
25°C
7%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 35%
23°C 27%
22°C 17%
21°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
$34 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$28 Обс.
1%
20°C
$6 Обс.
6%
21°C
$0 Обс.
9%
22°C
$26 Обс.
17%
23°C
$0 Обс.
27%
24°C
$92 Обс.
35%
25°C
$0 Обс.
7%
26°C
$1 Обс.
5%
27°C
$34 Обс.
1%
28°C or higher
$34 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models place Tokyo’s August 12 overnight low near 23–24 °C under a persistent Pacific High, with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit radiational cooling. These conditions produce market-implied odds clustered tightly between 23 °C (33 %) and 24 °C (34.5 %), reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Urban heat-island effects and humidity above 80 % further moderate temperature drops, while any earlier clearing could allow slightly cooler readings near 22 °C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$255Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models place Tokyo’s August 12 overnight low near 23–24 °C under a persistent Pacific High, with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit radiational cooling. These conditions produce market-implied odds clustered tightly between 23 °C (33 %) and 24 °C (34.5 %), reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Urban heat-island effects and humidity above 80 % further moderate temperature drops, while any earlier clearing could allow slightly cooler readings near 22 °C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$255Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models place Tokyo’s August 12 overnight low near 23–24 °C under a persistent Pacific High, with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit radiational cooling. These conditions produce market-implied odds clustered tightly between 23 °C (33 %) and 24 °C (34.5 %), reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Urban heat-island effects and humidity above 80 % further moderate temperature drops, while any earlier clearing could allow slightly cooler readings near 22 °C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання