Latest numerical weather prediction models, including those from AEMET and GFS, indicate clear skies and light winds favoring radiative cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures for Madrid on August 30 expected in the 14–19°C range. This aligns with the market-implied odds showing 13°C or below as the leading outcome at 55.5%, driven by a recent cooling trend that brought the August 27 minimum down to 16.3°C amid a stable high-pressure system. Historical climatology places the average low near 18°C, but current ensemble guidance highlights low uncertainty in the warm-air advection pattern, with minimal model spread suggesting limited downside risk below 14°C unless an unexpected front arrives. Traders are monitoring the next AEMET update for any revisions ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
13°C or below 57%
16°C 47%
14°C 30%
15°C 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
57%
14°C
30%
15°C
27%
16°C
47%
17°C
16%
18°C
15%
19°C
15%
20°C
15%
21°C
15%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
8%
13°C or below 57%
16°C 47%
14°C 30%
15°C 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Обс.
57%
14°C
$0 Обс.
30%
15°C
$0 Обс.
27%
16°C
$0 Обс.
47%
17°C
$0 Обс.
16%
18°C
$0 Обс.
15%
19°C
$0 Обс.
15%
20°C
$0 Обс.
15%
21°C
$5 Обс.
15%
22°C
$5 Обс.
2%
23°C or higher
$265 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including those from AEMET and GFS, indicate clear skies and light winds favoring radiative cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures for Madrid on August 30 expected in the 14–19°C range. This aligns with the market-implied odds showing 13°C or below as the leading outcome at 55.5%, driven by a recent cooling trend that brought the August 27 minimum down to 16.3°C amid a stable high-pressure system. Historical climatology places the average low near 18°C, but current ensemble guidance highlights low uncertainty in the warm-air advection pattern, with minimal model spread suggesting limited downside risk below 14°C unless an unexpected front arrives. Traders are monitoring the next AEMET update for any revisions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$275Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including those from AEMET and GFS, indicate clear skies and light winds favoring radiative cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures for Madrid on August 30 expected in the 14–19°C range. This aligns with the market-implied odds showing 13°C or below as the leading outcome at 55.5%, driven by a recent cooling trend that brought the August 27 minimum down to 16.3°C amid a stable high-pressure system. Historical climatology places the average low near 18°C, but current ensemble guidance highlights low uncertainty in the warm-air advection pattern, with minimal model spread suggesting limited downside risk below 14°C unless an unexpected front arrives. Traders are monitoring the next AEMET update for any revisions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$275Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including those from AEMET and GFS, indicate clear skies and light winds favoring radiative cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures for Madrid on August 30 expected in the 14–19°C range. This aligns with the market-implied odds showing 13°C or below as the leading outcome at 55.5%, driven by a recent cooling trend that brought the August 27 minimum down to 16.3°C amid a stable high-pressure system. Historical climatology places the average low near 18°C, but current ensemble guidance highlights low uncertainty in the warm-air advection pattern, with minimal model spread suggesting limited downside risk below 14°C unless an unexpected front arrives. Traders are monitoring the next AEMET update for any revisions ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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