Incumbent Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur’s long tenure and narrow 2024 victory by under one percentage point over Republican Derek Merrin continue to anchor trader expectations in the OH-09 race, even after Ohio’s October 2025 redistricting produced a more Republican-leaning map. Kaptur secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary, while Merrin won the GOP contest to set up a rematch on November 3. Cook Political Report rates the seat Lean Republican or Toss Up, reflecting the map shift, yet market pricing shows Democratic traders maintaining a clear edge through incumbency advantages and established voter networks in the Toledo-area district. A recent car crash hospitalization for the 80-year-old Kaptur introduces short-term uncertainty but has not yet altered the overall positioning ahead of the general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOH-09 House Election Winner
OH-09 House Election Winner
$25,263 Обс.
$25,263 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
65%
Republican Party
36%
$25,263 Обс.
$25,263 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,146 Обс.
65%
Republican Party
$23,118 Обс.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur’s long tenure and narrow 2024 victory by under one percentage point over Republican Derek Merrin continue to anchor trader expectations in the OH-09 race, even after Ohio’s October 2025 redistricting produced a more Republican-leaning map. Kaptur secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary, while Merrin won the GOP contest to set up a rematch on November 3. Cook Political Report rates the seat Lean Republican or Toss Up, reflecting the map shift, yet market pricing shows Democratic traders maintaining a clear edge through incumbency advantages and established voter networks in the Toledo-area district. A recent car crash hospitalization for the 80-year-old Kaptur introduces short-term uncertainty but has not yet altered the overall positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$25,263Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur’s long tenure and narrow 2024 victory by under one percentage point over Republican Derek Merrin continue to anchor trader expectations in the OH-09 race, even after Ohio’s October 2025 redistricting produced a more Republican-leaning map. Kaptur secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary, while Merrin won the GOP contest to set up a rematch on November 3. Cook Political Report rates the seat Lean Republican or Toss Up, reflecting the map shift, yet market pricing shows Democratic traders maintaining a clear edge through incumbency advantages and established voter networks in the Toledo-area district. A recent car crash hospitalization for the 80-year-old Kaptur introduces short-term uncertainty but has not yet altered the overall positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$25,263Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur’s long tenure and narrow 2024 victory by under one percentage point over Republican Derek Merrin continue to anchor trader expectations in the OH-09 race, even after Ohio’s October 2025 redistricting produced a more Republican-leaning map. Kaptur secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary, while Merrin won the GOP contest to set up a rematch on November 3. Cook Political Report rates the seat Lean Republican or Toss Up, reflecting the map shift, yet market pricing shows Democratic traders maintaining a clear edge through incumbency advantages and established voter networks in the Toledo-area district. A recent car crash hospitalization for the 80-year-old Kaptur introduces short-term uncertainty but has not yet altered the overall positioning ahead of the general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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