Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.2% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause rate changes at its January, March, and April 2026 meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—following confirmed holds at 3.50%–3.75% in January 27–28 and March 17–18 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% and the highest since May 2024, prompting the Fed's second consecutive pause and dot plot projections for just one cut later in 2026, likely mid-year. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects balanced risks in labor markets and persistent price pressures. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the April 28–29 meeting, potentially unlocking a 25 basis point cut.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtQuyết định của Fed (tháng 1-tháng 4)
Quyết định của Fed (tháng 1-tháng 4)
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.2%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Other <1%
$635,574 KL.
$635,574 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
99%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.2%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Other <1%
$635,574 KL.
$635,574 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$91,281 KL.
99%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$228,151 KL.
1%
Other
$276,156 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.2% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause rate changes at its January, March, and April 2026 meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—following confirmed holds at 3.50%–3.75% in January 27–28 and March 17–18 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% and the highest since May 2024, prompting the Fed's second consecutive pause and dot plot projections for just one cut later in 2026, likely mid-year. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects balanced risks in labor markets and persistent price pressures. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the April 28–29 meeting, potentially unlocking a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Khối lượng
$635,574Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.2% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause rate changes at its January, March, and April 2026 meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—following confirmed holds at 3.50%–3.75% in January 27–28 and March 17–18 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% and the highest since May 2024, prompting the Fed's second consecutive pause and dot plot projections for just one cut later in 2026, likely mid-year. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects balanced risks in labor markets and persistent price pressures. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the April 28–29 meeting, potentially unlocking a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$635,574Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.2% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause rate changes at its January, March, and April 2026 meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—following confirmed holds at 3.50%–3.75% in January 27–28 and March 17–18 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% and the highest since May 2024, prompting the Fed's second consecutive pause and dot plot projections for just one cut later in 2026, likely mid-year. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects balanced risks in labor markets and persistent price pressures. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the April 28–29 meeting, potentially unlocking a 25 basis point cut.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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