Incumbent Democrat Morgan McGarvey's commanding position in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District stems from the district's D+10 partisan lean, encompassing Democratic stronghold Louisville, where he secured 62% victories in both 2022 and 2024 general elections. With his Democratic primary canceled due to no opposition and $1.7 million cash on hand as of late March, he dwarfs the fragmented Republican primary field of four underfunded challengers—Daniel Cobble, David Nichter, Donald Pay, and Maria Teresa Rodriguez—ahead of the May 19 primaries. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball list it as Solid or Safe Democratic, driving trader consensus to 92% for Democrats. Upsets would require a well-funded GOP nominee post-primary, a national Republican midterm wave, or unforeseen McGarvey scandal before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKY-03 House Election Winner
KY-03 House Election Winner
$14,180 KL.
$14,180 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
$14,180 KL.
$14,180 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,206 KL.
92%
Republican Party
$2,973 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Morgan McGarvey's commanding position in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District stems from the district's D+10 partisan lean, encompassing Democratic stronghold Louisville, where he secured 62% victories in both 2022 and 2024 general elections. With his Democratic primary canceled due to no opposition and $1.7 million cash on hand as of late March, he dwarfs the fragmented Republican primary field of four underfunded challengers—Daniel Cobble, David Nichter, Donald Pay, and Maria Teresa Rodriguez—ahead of the May 19 primaries. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball list it as Solid or Safe Democratic, driving trader consensus to 92% for Democrats. Upsets would require a well-funded GOP nominee post-primary, a national Republican midterm wave, or unforeseen McGarvey scandal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$14,180Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Morgan McGarvey's commanding position in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District stems from the district's D+10 partisan lean, encompassing Democratic stronghold Louisville, where he secured 62% victories in both 2022 and 2024 general elections. With his Democratic primary canceled due to no opposition and $1.7 million cash on hand as of late March, he dwarfs the fragmented Republican primary field of four underfunded challengers—Daniel Cobble, David Nichter, Donald Pay, and Maria Teresa Rodriguez—ahead of the May 19 primaries. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball list it as Solid or Safe Democratic, driving trader consensus to 92% for Democrats. Upsets would require a well-funded GOP nominee post-primary, a national Republican midterm wave, or unforeseen McGarvey scandal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$14,180Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Morgan McGarvey's commanding position in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District stems from the district's D+10 partisan lean, encompassing Democratic stronghold Louisville, where he secured 62% victories in both 2022 and 2024 general elections. With his Democratic primary canceled due to no opposition and $1.7 million cash on hand as of late March, he dwarfs the fragmented Republican primary field of four underfunded challengers—Daniel Cobble, David Nichter, Donald Pay, and Maria Teresa Rodriguez—ahead of the May 19 primaries. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball list it as Solid or Safe Democratic, driving trader consensus to 92% for Democrats. Upsets would require a well-funded GOP nominee post-primary, a national Republican midterm wave, or unforeseen McGarvey scandal before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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