**Strong northwesterly winds and mild advection are keeping overnight lows in the 10–12°C range for Wellington on September 2, 2026, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around those thresholds.** Latest model guidance from sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and EaseWeather shows the minimum occurring in the early morning hours, with temperatures hovering near 11°C under partly cloudy skies and sustained NW winds of 20–25 mph (32–40 km/h). These winds limit radiational cooling by mixing warmer air from the Tasman Sea, while dew points near 8–10°C further constrain how far temperatures can drop. Historical early-September climatology for Wellington places typical overnight lows around 9–11°C, but the current setup favors the higher end of that range. Traders are assigning the highest implied probabilities to 11°C (51.5%), 12°C (49.5%), and 10°C (49.0%) because short-range forecast ensembles show only modest spread, with small differences in cloud cover or wind timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Upcoming model updates from MetService and international centers will likely tighten or shift these odds as the night approaches.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
15°C 46.6%
17°C or higher 38.8%
16°C 37.0%
14°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
-
8°C
-
9°C
-
10°C
49%
11°C
52%
12°C
-
13°C
1%
14°C
8%
15°C
47%
16°C
37%
17°C or higher
39%
15°C 46.6%
17°C or higher 38.8%
16°C 37.0%
14°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
$31 KL.
-
8°C
$11 KL.
-
9°C
$10 KL.
-
10°C
$10 KL.
49%
11°C
$10 KL.
52%
12°C
$0 KL.
-
13°C
$169 KL.
1%
14°C
$5 KL.
8%
15°C
$10 KL.
47%
16°C
$10 KL.
37%
17°C or higher
$137 KL.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong northwesterly winds and mild advection are keeping overnight lows in the 10–12°C range for Wellington on September 2, 2026, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around those thresholds.**
Latest model guidance from sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and EaseWeather shows the minimum occurring in the early morning hours, with temperatures hovering near 11°C under partly cloudy skies and sustained NW winds of 20–25 mph (32–40 km/h). These winds limit radiational cooling by mixing warmer air from the Tasman Sea, while dew points near 8–10°C further constrain how far temperatures can drop. Historical early-September climatology for Wellington places typical overnight lows around 9–11°C, but the current setup favors the higher end of that range.
Traders are assigning the highest implied probabilities to 11°C (51.5%), 12°C (49.5%), and 10°C (49.0%) because short-range forecast ensembles show only modest spread, with small differences in cloud cover or wind timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Upcoming model updates from MetService and international centers will likely tighten or shift these odds as the night approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$403Ngày kết thúc
Sep 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong northwesterly winds and mild advection are keeping overnight lows in the 10–12°C range for Wellington on September 2, 2026, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around those thresholds.**
Latest model guidance from sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and EaseWeather shows the minimum occurring in the early morning hours, with temperatures hovering near 11°C under partly cloudy skies and sustained NW winds of 20–25 mph (32–40 km/h). These winds limit radiational cooling by mixing warmer air from the Tasman Sea, while dew points near 8–10°C further constrain how far temperatures can drop. Historical early-September climatology for Wellington places typical overnight lows around 9–11°C, but the current setup favors the higher end of that range.
Traders are assigning the highest implied probabilities to 11°C (51.5%), 12°C (49.5%), and 10°C (49.0%) because short-range forecast ensembles show only modest spread, with small differences in cloud cover or wind timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Upcoming model updates from MetService and international centers will likely tighten or shift these odds as the night approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$403Ngày kết thúc
Sep 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Strong northwesterly winds and mild advection are keeping overnight lows in the 10–12°C range for Wellington on September 2, 2026, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around those thresholds.** Latest model guidance from sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and EaseWeather shows the minimum occurring in the early morning hours, with temperatures hovering near 11°C under partly cloudy skies and sustained NW winds of 20–25 mph (32–40 km/h). These winds limit radiational cooling by mixing warmer air from the Tasman Sea, while dew points near 8–10°C further constrain how far temperatures can drop. Historical early-September climatology for Wellington places typical overnight lows around 9–11°C, but the current setup favors the higher end of that range. Traders are assigning the highest implied probabilities to 11°C (51.5%), 12°C (49.5%), and 10°C (49.0%) because short-range forecast ensembles show only modest spread, with small differences in cloud cover or wind timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Upcoming model updates from MetService and international centers will likely tighten or shift these odds as the night approaches.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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